Poll’s predict Greens to take Islington by storm in the May local elections
With all of Islington’s 51 seats up for grabs on 7 May, new data predicts the Green Party could win big.
PollCheck data projects the Greens will maintain control of Highbury and gain all three seats in Tufnell Park, winning 13 seats across 9 wards.
Jo Dowbor, Green Party candidate for Arsenal ward in Islington told IslingtonNow that the Party’s position on Palestine has won them support across the borough. She said locals are hugely disappointed with Labour’s stance.
Ms Dowbor added that on a local level: “The number one issue for most people in Islington, regardless of income, ethnicity or gender, is housing.”
The Islington Greens want at least 50% of new housing developments to be ‘genuinely affordable’, also campaigning for the introduction of rent controls.
Ms Dowbor said: “Even if we do not gain the majority in 2026, and we gain more seats, it will put pressure on labour councillors.”
With the Lib Dems predicted to win two seats from Labour in St Marys St James ward, the Labour stronghold in Islington is looking fragile.
“I think it will send a strong message to Keir Starmer and his guard that they need to change their behaviour,” said Ms Dowbor.
Islington Greens are already the official opposition on Islington Council, alongside four independent candidates who work in coalition with the Greens.
Ms Dowbor told IslingtonNow that they are specifically targeting Highbury, Tufnell Park, Clerkenwell, Mildmay and Tollington as these wards are most likely to turn Green.
In the long-term, the Greens are also looking to win seats in Arsenal, Barnsbury, Caledonian, and Canonbury.
If Greens were to win all their target wards, they would gain a majority in the council, with 27/51 seats.
In a Guardian op-ed, London Mayor Sadiq Khan wrote that Labour must stop channelling Reform and unite with progressives: “A political strategy of taking liberal, progressive voters for granted is clearly flawed.”
The predicted wave of Greens support is part of a wider political shift both regionally, and nationally.
According to a new poll by Bombe for the Guardian, Labour is on course to lose 741 seats across the capital, with the Greens to scoop up the most of Labour’s losses.
In line with these projections, the Greens could end up with the most council seats across London with 548 seats, Tories in second with 481, and Labour trailing behind in third place, with 415.
Bombe’s polls suggest that Labour could lose control of Camden council, home to Prime Minister Kier Starmer’s own parliamentary seat.
Reflecting on the Greens’ rising popularity, Tony Travers, a professor of local government at the London School of Economics, said: “What’s interesting looking forward to the elections in May is that there is clearly a threat to Labour in Islington and neighbouring boroughs, Camden and Hackney, that will come as a bit of a shock to the system for Labour, who’ve seen themselves as really embedded there.
Mr Travers echoed Ms Dowbor on the importance of international events to Islington voters. He said: “The election refers to issues well beyond the locality, it refers to pro Palestine activism, and if anything, it’s slightly tilted towards the international end of the political spectrum, rather than the hyper local one or even the national one.”
Mr Travers said the local elections in the short time will likely “be a protest vote as at Gorton and Denton, won by the Greens, and the Runcorn by-election, which Reform won from Labour.”
But he added: “there’s something going on in the longer term as well, because the arrival of the Greens on the scene, sitting at 20% or more in some opinion polls, is unprecedented.”
Mr Traver’s explained how he believes this political shift “is more than a blip” with local elections reflecting a national shift towards “something that looks more like a multi-party, European party system”, where the Greens and Reform are making massive gains up and down the country.
You can register to vote in local elections until the 20 April on the Government website.
